Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS62 KTBW 141829
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
129 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers move through the region this evening and overnight. The
  probability of thunderstorms is low.

- Hazardous to dangerous marine conditions begin late tonight and
  last through Friday morning. Inexperienced mariners should
  remain in harbor until conditions improve.

- A significant cooldown is expected beginning tomorrow. Friday
  morning will be the coldest, but another front moving through on
  Sunday will push temperatures to be almost as cold to kick off
  the beginning of next week as well. Protect sensitive vegetation
  and exposed outdoor pipes, dress appropriately, and know the
  signs of hypothermia.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

As a trough axis stretches from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, a
cold front is approaching the FL Peninsula from the west. An axis of
moisture and instability ahead of this front has been producing
disorganized showers across the Nature Coast and the FL Big Bend,
and the axis continues to sink farther south. However, there is
still a strong pocket of dry air present in the 900mb to 700mb
layer. Until this section of the atmosphere saturates further, any
rain making it to the surface will be light.

Thus the best potential for rain across the area still looks to be
mainly this evening across the Nature Coast and overnight and into
tomorrow morning for the rest of the area. With weak lapse rates and
limited instability, thunderstorms look unlikely. However, the
potential does increase as the convection moves farther south into
relatively warmer and what should be more unstable air. Still, the
potential remains low enough that there is currently no mention of
thunderstorms in forecast.

As the front moves through and the pressure gradient tightens, a
gust NW wind will advect a significantly colder and drier airmass
across FL. This will favor some of the coldest temperatures for the
season so far on Friday. While high pressure does quickly settle
across the region, leading to a veering wind profile that advects
some warmer and slightly more moist air back in on Saturday, another
cold front is forecast to move through Sunday as another trough
propagates east. This will lead to another cooldown that is looking
similarly chilly.

High pressure then settles back in to the NW, initially over the
Northern Gulf Coast. The high will slowly propagate NE through mid-
week, but the location favors a persistent NNW flow for several
days. Because the airmass is Continental Polar in nature, it will
only slowly modify through the week. Thus, warming will happen
much more gradually. So while sunny, it will remain cool into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Convection will gradually sink south over the next few hours,
eventually reaching terminals overnight tonight. Once convection
moves into the vicinity, several hours of MVFR is likely before
gradually improving through the day tomorrow as a cold front pushes
south. However, winds will become increasingly gusty through the day
as well before gradually decreasing tomorrow night. Quieter weather
then returns and lasts through Saturday before the next front and
associated window for potential aviation impacts arrives Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Deteriorating marine conditions are expected later today and into
tonight as the next cold front approaches. Overnight showers will
initially have the potential to create locally hazardous winds and
seas. However, winds will increase areawide beginning after 1AM and
will continue through Friday morning. Winds are forecast to reach 20
to 25 knots, with gusts to around 30 knots or higher. Seas will
build in response to hazardous and even dangerous heights offshore.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect beginning early Thursday morning
and continuing through Friday morning when winds and seas subside.
Quieter boating weather then returns for Saturday before another
front arrives on Sunday, favoring another period of potentially
hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Showers are expected across the area this evening and overnight as a
cold front approaches. Behind the front, conditions will dry out and
the winds will increase. Gusts over land could be 25 knots or more
at times. Winds subside on Friday, but RH values will crash as the
flow becomes nearly due north. Min RH values on Friday are in the
low-to-mid 20s and 30s. Moisture begins to return on Saturday, but
another front will approach on Sunday. This will lead to another
period of gusty winds and low RH values for early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  61  36  61 /  70  30   0   0
FMY  59  68  36  66 /  70  60   0   0
GIF  53  61  32  62 /  70  30   0   0
SRQ  56  65  36  61 /  80  40   0   0
BKV  47  59  25  61 /  70  20   0   0
SPG  58  63  43  61 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Flannery