Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

033
FXUS62 KTBW 041815
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast during the
  morning hours moving eastward during the afternoon/evening through
  the weekend.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will   occur
  through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

We are seeing a shift in the wind flow to a more onshore south-
southwest flow as the high pressure center shifts southeastward and
ridges westward across south Florida and into the central Gulf. This
onshore flow combined with continued abundant moisture has led to
scattered showers and storms along the coastline this morning.
Coverage will increase to scattered to numerous this afternoon and
evening as they traverse eastward over the interior. Similar
conditions expected on Sunday with early morning showers and storms
over the eastern Gulf waters and along the west coast traversing
eastward through the day. Not a lot of change expected in the
weather pattern through the middle of next week.

By Wednesday, high pressure remains over south Florida and a south-
southwest onshore shore will prevail, but some slightly drier air
with PWAT values around 1.7-2.0 inches will move over the region.
This is still abundant moisture for daily showers and storms, but
may slightly decrease chances down to around 20-40 percent from
Wednesday through the end of next week. Near seasonal temps in the
low to mid 90s continue with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees
expected each afternoon. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Showers and storms have been pushing through the terminals this
morning and will continue to traverse eastward through the
afternoon. Will keep VCTS at all terminals through 20Z and TEMPO
TSRA at LAL through 21Z, then rain-free through the evening hours.
More showers and storms possible during the early morning hours on
Sunday after 09Z, so will cover this with VCTS and PROB30 TSRA at
all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Pleasant boating conditions expected through the weekend and into
next week with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or
less. The only marine impact expected will be some scattered showers
and storms, which may produce some gusty erratic winds and rough
seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with scattered to numerous showers
and storms expected. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than
10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  90  81  91 /  50  40  30  40
FMY  77  91  78  93 /  40  40  30  60
GIF  76  92  76  94 /  30  60  20  80
SRQ  79  91  79  92 /  40  30  30  40
BKV  74  92  74  93 /  40  40  30  50
SPG  80  90  80  91 /  50  30  30  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn