Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

882
FXUS62 KTBW 092329
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
729 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
High pressure will continue to hold over the region tonight and
tomorrow with clear skies tonight, with a few strato-cu developing
mainly over the interior Thursday afternoon...but for the most,
sunny skies across the forecast area. Overnight lows will run several
degrees below normal with lows in the 50s away from the coast.
Seasonable temperatures on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid
80s, but continued comfortable conditions with low afternoon
relative humidity values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

A positively tilted trough axis is propagating across the Florida
peninsula. As this clears out, high pressure is building back in
at the surface. For now, this surface high is situated to the
north and west over the MS/AL border. In response, a northerly
wind continues to advect cooler and drier air back across the
region.

As the high slides farther east, the flow will start to veer to more
of a NE direction and temps will start to climb in response.
However, another front is expected Friday as the upper level
pattern remains amplified and a deep longwave trough digs over the
E CONUS. While a fairly strong kinematic environment, the overall
setup is going to very stable in the low-levels, meaning the
thermodynamic environment will be rather unfavorable. While there
could be a couple storms over the Gulf waters where there is
better moisture and instability, the setup is unfavorable for
sustained convection over land.

A slight cooldown is favored once again behind this front, with
highs and lows not unlike today and tomorrow for the weekend. By
early next week, however, a southerly wind returns, allowing for
increasing low-level moisture and warming temperatures. Large-scale
subsidence will keep things dry, though, so the main weather impact
into the middle of next week will again be the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with clear
skies tonight...and FEW040 developing during Thursday afternoon

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Gusty winds are expected through the afternoon and evening before
quieting overnight, with hazardous seas in response. As winds settle
overnight, seas will do the same. Quiet, dry weather is expected
tomorrow before another front on Friday leads to another increase in
winds and seas through the weekend, along with a low chance for a
storm over coastal waters late Friday and into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Drier weather and gusty wind remain borderline today for red flag
conditions. Moisture will rebound tomorrow, however, before another
dry front pushes through Friday into Saturday, with another period
of gusty winds and drier conditions expected before gradually
improving by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  60  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  82  59  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  81  59  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  79  59  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  80  52  82  57 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  77  62  81  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn