Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

386
FXUS62 KTBW 040440
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1240 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers and a stray storm today over SW Florida.

- Warming trend the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026
A stationary frontal boundary across the southern Florida
peninsula combined with a weak U/L disturbance continues to
produce a few light showers mainly over southwest Florida. The
U/L disturbance will exit east of the area today with high
pressure building over the forecast area with decreasing
cloudiness and drier air advecting over much of the area.
However, can`t rule out an isolated afternoon shower or storm
over southwest Florida. The clearing skies will lead to warmer
temperatures this afternoon than the past couple of days.

Low level moisture will begin to recover on Tuesday as the surface
ridge axis will be located north of the region creating easterly
boundary layer flow off the Atlantic.  An U/L ridge will build
over the Florida peninsula mid week with increasing large scale
subsidence causing temperatures to climb several degrees above
normal. The subsidence should also inhibit afternoon convection
creating flattened CU/partly cloudy skies and very warm
days...and mostly clear nights.

A frontal boundary will approach north Florida late in the week
stalling across north Florida as it becomes parallel to the U/L
flow. There will still be a chance of showers/thunderstorms
developing over the northern nature coast and portions of west
central Florida as moisture increases and the mid level cap begins
to erode. The U/L ridge will gradually give way and be suppressed
to the south over the weekend with a slightly better chance of an
afternoon shower or thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026
Areas of MVFR CIGs around 025 over southwest Florida will persist
through the early morning hours (PGD/FMY/RSW), with VFR CIGs
040-050 at TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ. Decreasing cloudiness through the
remainder of the day with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026
High pressure will hold over the waters through the week with
generally benign conditions expected. Easterly flow today will
shift to the south to southeast by mid week...then veering to the
west and southwest ahead of a frontal boundary late in the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026
Drier air over the region will cause minimum afternoon relative
humidity values to drop to near critical levels mainly across the
nature coast today. However, winds are expected to remain below
critical values. Moisture will begin to recover on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  68  89  72 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  86  68  90  70 /  20  20  10   0
GIF  85  65  90  69 /  10   0  10   0
SRQ  86  66  87  69 /  10  20  10   0
BKV  88  58  90  61 /   0  10  10   0
SPG  87  72  88  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby